Who will be the 2011 Pulitzer Prize Winner for Fiction?

March 16, 2011

The Pulitzer Prize announcement is still more than a month away (April 18th is the big day). But with all of the predictor variables entered, we are ready for our final prediction. Here is our 2011 Pulitzer Prize prediction list prepared by a fellow Pulitzer collector, and research scientist. This regression analysis has a new process of weights to account for a given book's performance in the current year awards and the author's past award and nomination history.

The PPrize.com Prediction List for the 2011 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction:

1.	A Visit From the Goon Squad by Jennifer Egan
2.	Freedom by Jonathan Franzen
3.	Lord of Misrule by Jaimy Gordon
4.	Nemesis by Philip Roth
5.	The Surrendered by Chang Rae-Lee
6.	Nashville Chrome by Rick Bass
7.	Fun with Problems by Robert Stone
8.	Matterhorn by Karl Marlantes
9.	Sourland: Stories by Joyce Carol Oates
10.	Point Omega by Don DeLillo
11.	Noah's Compass by Anne Tyler
12.	Collected Stories by Deborah Eisenberg
13.	The Lonely Polygamist by Brady Udall
14.	Crooked Letter, Crooked Letter by Tom Franklin
15.	Next by James Hynes
16.	The Lotus Eaters by Soli Tatjana

This list is based upon analysis that ultimately incorporates over 30 independent or predictor variables such as newspaper notable and best book lists; other awards and award nominations; and authors previously nominated for the Pulitzer and other awards. There is still much that cannot be predicted about winning the Pulitzer Prize and lots of other factors that cannot be quantified as variables that certainly contribute to the award process. Readers should only consider this list for what it is intended to be, a fun exercise in second guessing (or pre-guessing) the Pulitzer Prize judges.

Here is an additional list of books that ranked lower in the regression analysis, but were singled-out by the PPrize.com community as having potential to win this year's Pulitzer Prize for Fiction:

1.	Great House by Nicole Krauss
2.	How to Escape from a Leper Colony by Tiphanie Yanique
3.	How to Read the Air by Dinaw Megestu
4.	I Hotel by Karen Tei Yamashita
5.	The Invisible Bridge by Julie Orringer
6.	Kings of the Earth by Jon Clinch
7.	The Madonnas of Echo Park by Brando Skyhorse
8.	New Yorker Stories by Ann Beattie
9.	Parrott and Olivier in America by Peter Carey
10.	The Privileges by Jonathan Dee
11.	The Spot by David Means
12.	Super Sad True Love Story by Gary Shteyngart
13.	Walking to Gatlinburg by Howard Frank Mosher
14.	The Widower's Tale by Julia Glass
15.	Wild Child by T.C. Boyle

Note: The books on these lists are not endorsements. We are not stating that any particular book deserves to win the Pulitzer Prize. Nor are we saying what book should win. Rather we are presenting the books we think are most likely to be selected by the Pulitzer organization as the winner based upon notable and best book lists, other awards and award nominations, an author's track record, and the types of books that have won in the past.

Comment on our lists, or offer your own opinion about who you think will win the 2011 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction: