Who will be the 2010 Pulitzer Prize Winner for Fiction?

March 23, 2010

Here is the final prediction list for the 2010 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction, which will be announced on Monday, April 12. Our research scientist and Modern Firsts/Pulitzer Prize book collector has finished his final regression analysis. His two-year track record has been impressive. Last year, number nine on the 2009 list was the winner, and number six was a finalist. In 2008, number three was the winner, and number five was a finalist.

You might have noticed that this new list is unchanged from last month's adjusted list. That's because none of the March factors were significant enought to change the ranking. This final 2010 list was created using over 30 independent or predictor variables such as newspaper notable and best book lists; other awards and award nominations for 2009; and authors previously nominated for the Pulitzer and other awards.

Missing from this prediction list is Anne Tyler's Noah's Compass. Only books published in 2009 are eligible to win in 2010, and Random House has verified that Noah's Compass was published in 2010 (contrary to all of the information in the first edition indicating that is was published in 2009). Also, please keep in mind that because some authors are perennial award winners and nominees, their books are disproportionately likely to end up at the top in calculations such as this. So any book by Philip Roth or Joyce Carol Oates, for example, will likely wind up in our list for any given year.

Those caveats aside, the top 15 books written in 2009 that we predict to win in 2010 according to this adjusted model are (in order of probability):

1.	My Father's Tears: And Other Stories by John Updike
2.	Lark & Termite by Jayne Anne Phillips
3.	Homer & Langley by E.L. Doctorow
4.	The Humbling by Philip Roth
5.	Let the Great World Spin by Colum McCann
6.	The Maple Stories by John Updike
7.	American Salvage by Bonnie Jo Campbell
8.	Spooner by Pete Dexter
9.	Generosity: An Enhancement by Richard Powers
10.	In Other Rooms, Other Wonders by Daniyal Mueenuddin
11.	The Lacuna by Barbara Kingsolver
12.	A Good Fall by Ha Jin
13.	The Red Convertible by Louise Erdrich
14.	Chronic City by Jonathan Lethem
15.	Dear Husband (or Little Bird of Heaven) by Joyce Carol Oates

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